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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2014–Mar 28th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

The forecast new snow and wind should increase the avalanche danger. If the storm comes early the danger may be high by Friday afternoon.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Friday: Freezing level dropping down to about 600 metres overnight. Snow starting in the early morning near the coast and moving inland as a warm front moves across the region. Expect 15-20 cm of snow near the coast, and 10-15 cm inland during the day. Southwest winds should build to strong values by the afternoon and freezing levels should rise to about 1500 metres.Saturday: A trailing cold front should bring another 15-20 cm of snow to near coastal areas and 5-10 cm further inland by morning. Winds should slow to moderate Southwest during the day as snow continues. Freezing level rising to about 1500 metres during the day.Sunday: Snow ending overnight or early morning. Light Southerly winds and freezing levels rising to about 1300 metres.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports of avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

The recent snow is expected to settle and bond to the mix of old surface crusts and wind slabs with daytime warming and overnight freezing levels dropping down to near valley bottoms. The forecast new snow and strong Southwest winds are expected to develop new storm slabs over the next few days that may release down to the old surface of  melt-freeze crusts and/or where facets are sitting on old wind slabs. The added load of storm snow or storm slab avalanches in motion may trigger the March persistent weak layer. The early-March crust/facet layer is down about 100-150 cm and the early February layer is now down close to 200 cm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Expect a new storm slab to start to develop during the day. The recent snow has not had a lot of time to settle and bond, and there may be areas where the old storm slab could be triggered by light additional loads.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Forecast snow and wind may develop fresh new cornices that could fall off naturally and trigger the deeply buried weak layers. Storm snow avalanches in motion may also trigger these weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6