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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 6th, 2023–Jan 7th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island.

Heavy snowfall and extreme wind are creating dangerous avalanche conditions at treeline and alpine elevations.

A persistent slab problem lurks at a prime depth for human triggering as well as large, consequential avalanches. Stick to simple, low-angle, supported slopes with no overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche activity has been reported this week.

On Friday and looking forward to Saturday, we expect natural avalanches to occur during periods of intense precipitation and wind-loading.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy snowfall accumulation has occurred above 1000 m in the past few days. Rain will soak the snowpack at lower elevations. Avalanches during this period could run on a crust layer that is roughly 60 deep. Snowpack depths at treeline are roughly 100 cm, while most below treeline terrain is below the threshold depth for avalanches, except for isolated smooth features.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Cloudy with precipitation, 10-20 mm. Snowline 600 to 900 m. Southerly winds 60-120 km/h at ridgetop, treeline temperatures around 0 C.

Saturday

Precipitation easing, 5-15 mm in the morning. Snowline around 700m. Southerly winds 60-80 km/h at ridgetop easing into the afternoon, treeline temperatures rise to 1 C.

Sunday

A mix of sun and cloud with up to 5 mm of precipitation, snowline around 900 m. Southerly winds increase 60-100 km/h at ridgetop. Treeline temperatures around 0 C.

Monday

Cloudy with precipitation, up to 4mm. Snowline around 600 m. 60-90 km/h southeasterly winds at ridgetop. Treeline temperatures are around -1 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A crust formed in early January is bonding poorly to the overlying snow. With the recent new snow load, this crust is now buried 60-80 cm deep, a prime depth for human-triggering as well as large, consequential avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Strong southerly winds and heavy snowfall have created deep deposits of wind slab in the alpine and treeline.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5