Avalanche Forecast

Good

A weak storm should limp into the South Rockies Sunday night bringing 1 - 3cm.  The region could pick up a few cm Monday night but it looks high and dry for Wednesday and Thursday.  Models are starting to converge around the idea of yet another shot of warm air otherwise known as Pineapple Express on Friday.  Ugh.

No new avalanches have been reported. On Wednesday a size 2 avalanche was accidentally triggered on an east aspect in the alpine by a sledder near Racehorse Pass (Crowsnest) on the December persistent weak layer.

Recent sunny weather and high freezing levels have decimated the lower elevation snowpack. As a result the threshold for avalanches in most of the region has risen to approximately 1600m, potentially higher on solar aspects. 4-8cm of new snow has covered up a melt freeze crust and/or surface hoar, or a combo of both. The melt freeze crust exists up to approximately 1900m and up to all elevations on solar aspects. Time will tell, but I suspect this new layer will likely cause problems down the line and is a good one to keep in mind as it becomes buried deeper over time. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar layer is down 40-85cm and is suspected to be reactive in isolated areas, especially where a slab of stiffer snow has consolidated above it. This layer has proven easier to trigger from shallow and rocky areas in the alpine and treeline.