Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Monday will see mixed weather before a more organized system arrives on Wednesday. Convective activity could result in locally higher accumulations. Temperatures are staying cool for this time of year. MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud and occasional flurries in the afternoon / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -8 / Freezing level 1000m TUESDAY: Cloudy with flurries (2-5 cm possible) / Light to moderate south west wind / Alpine temperature -7 / Freezing level 1100m WEDNESDAY: Snow (10-20cm) / Moderate south west wind / Alpine temperature -4 / Freezing level 1300m

On Friday a sled-triggered size 2 wind slab was reported near Grizzly Lake near Powder Mountain, on a north west aspect near 1750m. See the MIN post for more details. On Thursday several natural avalanches to size 2.5 were reported in the Tantalus Range. See the MCR for more details. On Wednesday there was a size 1 avalanche that sympathetically triggered a size 3 persistent slab avalanche resulting in a fatality. This was on a northeast aspect at 2000m, 50cm deep. Additionally there were reports of natural persistent slab avalanches size 2.5-3 on southeast through northeast aspects between 1800 and 2000m. These were reported to have happened in the previous 24-48 hours. See this MIN post for similar details.

We've seen only trace amounts of new snow in the past four days, although convective activity on Sunday could produce local amounts of 10-15cm. Winds, however, were once again moderate to strong from the south / southwest Saturday night, keeping wind slabs in the front of our minds and further growing cornices.Sunny aspects have been through a melt-freeze cycle over the past few days, in addition to likely being wind scoured. Last week's storm snow was redistributed by moderate to strong southwest winds. This snow rests on the March 21st interface, a mix of moist grains at low elevations, crusts on solar aspects at all elevations and surface hoar/facets on north/east facing features at treeline and alpine elevations. Some west facing features may have surface hoar on top of a crust. The March 21st interface has been giving variably moderate to hard sudden planar results, typically down 50-60cm on 1-2mm facets.Deeper in the snowpack, 80 to 140 cm below the surface is a combination of facets, surface hoar, and/or crust known as the mid-February layer. This interface has not been active recently.The mid and lower snowpack are strong and well settled.