Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 13th, 2018–Dec 14th, 2018

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast Inland.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region. Strong winds and warming will maintain high danger even though snow amounts are likely to taper off.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Around 10 cm new snow above 1600 m.FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud in the morning with rain/snow developing in the afternoon (amounts of about 10 cm/mm). Very strong southerly winds (up to 100 km/h at ridgetop). Freezing level around 1900 m.SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Winds becoming light southwesterly. Freezing level around 900 m.SUNDAY: 10 cm or so new snow with a freezing level of around 1200 m. Strong southerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

We have had few observations from this region during the storm. Observations from the Sea to Sky region indicate there was a natural avalanche cycle to size 2 on Wednesday and Thursday. Similar avalanche activity has likely occurred in this region, and will likely continue to occur with continued storm snow in the forecast.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall starting Sunday night has deposited 40-60 cm at higher elevations in the region. This has buried a weak, variable surface layer covering 20-30 cm of low density faceted snow. The new snow has not bonded well with the older snow. Prior to this storm, alpine snowpack depths varied around 120-180 cm, with an early November crust at bottom of the snowpack (down 100-120cm). This crust appears to be breaking down at higher elevations and has been unreactive to snowpack tests. Snowpack depths disappear quickly with decreasing elevations and new snow may just cover early season hazards at lower elevations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

With increased snowfall and high winds forecasted, expect storm slabs to be more reactive in wind-loaded terrain.

Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5