Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 15th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada wlewis, Avalanche Canada

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Vancouver Island.

Monitor surface conditions as you move through aspects and gain elevation. Watch for dense, wind affected snow at higher elevations and moist or wet surface snow if the sun starts to shine. 

Check out the new forecaster blog if you're considering big lines this weekend.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A cool and unsettled flow will affect coastal regions into the weekend. Convective flurries are expected in isolated areas and may be heavy at times. 

FRIDAY NIGHT: Flurries continue into the evening with up to 10 cm expected in isolated areas. Light variable winds. Freezing levels drop to 500 m overnight. 

SATURDAY: Increasing cloud with light easterly winds. 2-10 cm of snow expected. Freezing levels rise to 1100 m.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny with some cloud, increasing southeasterly winds. Freezing levels rise to 1200 m. Isolated flurries are expected to bring trace amounts. 

MONDAY: Snow begins in the morning with 10-30 cm expected, freezing levels reach 1300 m. Strong southeast winds ease to moderate over the day with mostly cloudy skies. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Thursday.

On Wednesday small point releases and sluffing were observed in the recent storm snow out of steep features to size 1. Check out this MIN report on recent conditions in the Beadnell area, or the Mt Cain area in this MIN report.

Observations are limited at this time of year, so please consider posting to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow of 30-70 cm is settling over a widespread and supportive crust. Wind affected snow can now be found mainly on south and west aspects at treeline and above, from recent easterly winds.

A melt freeze crust can be found on the surface of south facing slopes at treeline and below. Periods of sun may soften or break down the crust throughout the day. 

The mid and lower snowpack is considered strong at this time, consisting of hard snow and melt freeze crusts. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Sheltered slopes at lower elevations will offer the best riding.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Pockets of wind slabs may be found in steep terrain features near ridges from recent easterly winds. Look for wind affected snow near ridgelines and around mid slope rollovers - recent winds have varied throughout the island. 

Cornices may be weak and reactive to human triggers. They are a significant hazard alone, and may produce large slab avalanches as they fall onto the slope below. Cornice falls are more likely as temperatures warm each day, or when strong sunshine is present. 

Aspects: North, South, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 16th, 2022 4:00PM

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