Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Wednesday: Unsettled conditions with light convective flurries. Freezing level is around 1000m during the day. Winds are light from the S-SE. Thursday: Some uncertainty, but a weak system should give some snow - 5-15cm (greater amounts to the east). Freezing level steady around 1000m. Friday: A drier and sunnier day as a weak ridge builds in. Freezing level rising to 1500m during the day.

We're still seeing almost daily reports of very large avalanches failing on the deeply buried mid-Feb surface hoar layer. The latest report is from the Lumberton snowmobile area in the East Kootenays. A snowmobiler accidentally triggered a very large (Size 3+) avalanche that resulted in a close call. Although triggering the deep persistent weakness is becoming less likely, if you do, the resulting avalanche could have fatal consequences.

An additional 20-30cm of new snow on Tuesday with moderate to strong winds resulted in new wind slab formation in exposed leeward terrain. Several resistant shears have been noted in the storm snow. A sun crust on southern aspects and a spotty 2-6mm surface hoar on north and east aspects is down around 60-100cm. Below that, the more significant early February surface hoar is down 100-180cm. Snowpack tests show moderate to hard forces generating sudden planar shears on this layer. A melt-freeze crust, down 20-30cm, below 1800m provides some bridging to the layers below. Below the early February surface hoar layer, the snowpack is strong in most places. Cornices are very large and would act as a significant trigger for all the layers mentioned above if they drop.