Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The next pulse of snow is expected to roll in Tuesday afternoon with 15-25cm of snow by Wednesday morning.  Winds pick up with the incoming storm and spike to strong out of the southwest Tuesday night.  Freezing levels may also rise to around 1800m during height of storm Tuesday evening but generally remain below 1500m throughout the forecast period. We expect a clearing trend Wednesday/Thursday.

On Sunday several skier triggered slab avalanches to size 1.5 were reported on northerly aspects at treeline and above. The avalanches were both wind slabs and storm slabs running on a new layer of surface hoar that was buried by the recent snow.

A new layer of surface hoar up to size 20mm has been buried by the recent snow and is very reactive to human triggers. This layer is down 10-35cm and is present above 1700m on all aspects except due south where it was cooked by the sun and is a crust. Sunday's snowfall amounts varied widely across the region but were generally highest around Nelson. There was significant cross loading of slopes on Sunday so expect to find touchy wind slabs on many different aspects. These storm slabs if triggered may step down to the mid February layer that is down 80-100cm resulting in potentially very large avalanches.