Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Assess for potential reactivity of the recent snow and use particular caution during the heat of the day.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy, 20 km/h north wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezling level rising to 1500 m.
MONDAY: Clear skies, 10 km/h north wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level rising to 2000 m.
TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1800 m.
Avalanche Summary
Storm and wind slab avalanches were likely triggerable on Saturday and into the night at high elevations. The snow could still be triggered on Sunday for areas that received sufficient snowfall.
Snowpack Summary
You may find around 10 to 20 cm of snow from Saturday's storm above 1600 m. The snow fell with strong southeast wind, so wind slabs may be found at high elevations on lee terrain features. The snow overlies a hard melt-freeze crust everywhere except for wind-affected snow on north aspects above 1600 m, so it could take a few days to bond to underlying surfaces. If sunny skies prevail on Sunday, the snow may moisten on sun-exposed slopes. Below around 1600 m, the snow is likely wet or has frozen into a hard melt-freeze crust.
Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Their release is unpredictable, requiring a large berth if you're travelling above or below them.
Terrain and Travel
- The new snow may require another day to settle and stabilize.
- Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Around 10 to 20 cm of new snow may be found across the region, which may not bond well to an underlying crust or hard snow surface. The snow fell with strong southeast wind, likely forming wind slabs in lee terrain features at higher elevations. Carefully assess for slab properties and the bond of the snow to the underlying snowpack prior to committing yourself to consequential avalanche terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines, and have likely grown with the recent snow and wind. They become increasingly weak when the sun comes out and freezing levels rise. They require a large berth when travelling above and below them.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Loose Wet
The recent snow may moisten and form wet loose avalanches on sun-exposed slopes if clear skies prevail.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2