Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Storm Slabs.

mike eder, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Highway 93 and Maligne lake road are closed until further notice.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Scattered flurries are expected to be produce on trace amounts of snow on Tuesday with the freezing level staying around 1400m into early Wednesday morning. Winds will lighten up and stay steady from the SW to West. Later in the week should see a slight cooling trend which will firm up the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Below 2500m, the has been an infusion of rain and/or wet snow. At treeline, the heavier snow sits over a persistent weak layer. Below treeline, isothermic conditions exist. With a such a highly variable snowpack in the region, expect these conditions to overload lingering instabilities and go to ground in some locations.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous slab avalanches up to size 3 were seen originating at treeline on all aspects near the forecast area. These were often started by a point release from above which would have stepped down to the midpack weak layer and also to ground. Below treeline, numerous loose snow avalanches up to size 2,started from rock bluffs.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Heavy snow sits on the December weak layer. Any additional load such as a small point release can step down to this weak layer. Once the slide is moving, it will step down further to ground from the weight of the snowpack.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

The snow below treeline is saturated from the rain and if it slides, it will go to ground. Avoid consequential areas where heavy wet slides may push you over or into terrain traps. Low elevation ice climbs will be prone to wet sloughs.

Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Strong SW winds continue to scour open slopes in the alpine and redistribute that snow into wind slabs on lee aspects and cross loaded features. This extra load combined with a skier will likely initiate an avalanche.

If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2015 4:00PM