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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 26th, 2015–Jan 27th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Highway 93 and Maligne lake road are closed until further notice.

Weather Forecast

Scattered flurries are expected to be produce on trace amounts of snow on Tuesday with the freezing level staying around 1400m into early Wednesday morning. Winds will lighten up and stay steady from the SW to West. Later in the week should see a slight cooling trend which will firm up the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Below 2500m, the has been an infusion of rain and/or wet snow.  At treeline, the heavier snow sits over a persistent weak layer. Below treeline,  isothermic conditions exist. With a such a highly variable snowpack in the region, expect these conditions to overload lingering instabilities and go to ground in some locations. 

Avalanche Summary

Numerous slab avalanches up to size 3 were seen originating at treeline on all aspects near the forecast area. These were often started by a point release from above which would have stepped down to the midpack weak layer and also to ground.  Below treeline, numerous loose snow avalanches up to size 2,started from rock bluffs.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Heavy snow sits on the December weak layer. Any additional load such as a small point release can step down to this weak layer. Once the slide is moving, it will step down further to ground from the weight of the snowpack.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

The snow below treeline is saturated from the rain and if it slides, it will go to ground. Avoid consequential areas where heavy wet slides may push you over or into terrain traps. Low elevation ice climbs will be prone to wet sloughs.
Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Strong SW winds continue to scour open slopes in the alpine and redistribute that snow into wind slabs on lee aspects and cross loaded features. This extra load combined with a skier will likely initiate an avalanche.
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3