Avalanche forecast

Salt River and Wyoming Ranges

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger a dangerous avalanche on steep slopes where strong winds have drifted snow. Avoid areas where you see smooth, rounded pillows of snow or where you feel the snow surface change from softer to stiffer. You can find safer riding options on lower-angled, wind-sheltered slopes without steep overhead hazards.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh wind slabs have formed with incoming snowfall and wind from the southwest. An additional 4" of snowfall is expected today, favoring the southern portion of the Greys. Due to the high wind speeds, this problem may extend into the lower elevations on certain terrain features (i.e. long ridges in the Snake River Canyon, Star Valley, etc) and more exposed sections of terrain, rocky features, and saddles. You will find drifted snow ~1-2 feet deep at upper and middle elevations today. Even small amounts of snowfall can load deeply— in this case; the wind has plenty of ammunition. Avalanches may break easily on the old snow surface, even in more sheltered locations, but given the intensity of the wind, it may be difficult to find slopes that have not seen some wind effect today. Be on the lookout for wave-like texture, rippled snow, or stiff or drifted surfaces. Cracking or collapsing are clear signs of instability, so pause to regroup with your partners (or collect your own thoughts) and reassess steep terrain today. Sheltered terrain will provide the safest riding. If you travel in avalanche terrain now, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential.

    Cornice Falls: Observations of cornice failures continue to be reported. Give cornices a very wide buffer zone, and be careful along ridgelines as they can break further back than expected. Falling cornices can impact deeply buried weak layers and trigger large avalanches.

     

    (2/25/2024) Avalanche closer view south of Gunsight Pass 2/25/24 Photo: Amy David

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Changing weather means giving slopes with older, weak snow a very wide buffer. Hard slabs 3-5 feet thick overlay weak snow that formed earlier in the season. We expect to see some natural avalanches breaking on deeper, weak snow in this zone. Steep, rocky, unsupported, and wind-affected terrain on the north half of the compass remains suspect. Thin spots in the slab (trigger points) are most common in these locations. While it has become unlikely for a human to trigger one of these slabs, larger triggers such as cornice falls, smaller avalanches or even snowmobiles still have the potential to impact weak layers buried deeply in the snowpack.

    The Wyoming Range harbors a weaker and shallower snowpack, making it easier to impact these weak layers. The Snake and Salt River Ranges hold a deeper snowpack, where this is less likely but remains very possible, particularly with incoming snowfall.

    (2/25/2024) Gunsight Pass 2/25/24 Photo: Amy David

Avalanche Discussion

THE ROSE—Who doesn't love fresh snowfall? February has provided better riding conditions. Before this storm, we've had a reprieve from an early winter season spent in an entrenched "if it's steep, it will bite" mindset. 

THE THORN—Remember the first half of the winter when we had one primary weak layer of snow and knew that each loading event would likely produce large avalanches and dangerous conditions? In many ways, that time was easier than now. More dangerous, sure—but simple and predictable from a forecasting standpoint. Our snowpack isn't as hair-trigger but has more complexity based on location. In many ways, this makes it a much less predictable animal. Two things are certain in my mind: the first is that changing weather (especially with wind speeds this high) will make for more hazardous conditions. The other is that I would be shocked not to see avalanches breaking on deeper, old, weak snow in the second avalanche problem above in select locations. I'm currently avoiding terrain across all the zones where I can still find weaker snow easily—where it is shallower—and terrain that has already avalanched several times this season. 

THE BUD—Realizing that snowpack conditions are complex can be relieving. It requires a shift in our approach to the problem—we can simplify the situation by returning to the basics—new snow + wind + weak snow = dangerous conditions. Luckily, we also have plenty of tools to combat the complexity. We can read a forecast and gather useful information, look for evidence of the problems in the field, assess and reassess as winds or weather change, and still ride plenty of fun snow this week by choosing terrain wisely. We've been burying weak snow from December deeper and deeper, which has slowly become dormant. This has left room for entering fun avalanche terrain after storm cycles pass, but we still need to remember that even small avalanches can be dangerous. New snow problems need to be given their respect, even if they seem more manageable. It's easy to find reasons to say "yes" to a given slope. So operate from where you have uncertainty versus certainty, be your own devil's advocate, and look for evidence pointing to the "no." Enjoy some fun riding today, keep it tight, and dial back slope angles while the new snowfall settles out. 

Regions covered