Avalanche forecast

Arthur's Pass

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 weeks ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The next storm cycle is forecast to arrive tomorrow. Expect changing conditions; any backcountry travel will require good assessment skills. Expect the wind slab hazard to increase during the day; snow totals are expected to increase mostly in the evening, but 20 cm is also forecast in the morning.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Expect the wind slab hazard to increase during the day; snow totals are expected to increase mostly in the evening, but 20 cm is also forecast in the morning.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Lower elevations will initially get rain, and the loose wet hazard will increase until the freezing levels drop. Cautiuon if the snow is wet for loose wet avalanches on all aspects.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Multiple loose, wet size 1-1.5 were observed on all aspects on the 24th that ran during the storm. See public observation.

If you see anything, please report it in the public observations section of the NZAA website.

Current Snowpack Conditions

80mm of rain fell in Arthur's Pass on Friday. Initially, rain fell below 1900m, but the freezing level dropped later in the storm, with snow to 1100m. Over 80cm of new snow fell above 1900 m, with drifts to over 1m expected; expect some storm shears within the new snow. The lower elevations will have started wet, with new snow expected to have bonded well. All this fell on a generally well-settled snowpack. Limited snow cover below 1700m before the last storm. There have been a couple of storm cycles this season, bringing a base at higher elevation associated with strong winds, leaving a pressed snowpack with no significant layers of concern. At lower elevations (below 2000m) ice crusts exist but bonding to the ice layers has been good.

Mountain Weather

Showers, turning to heavy rain for a time in the evening. Snow lowering to 1200 metres. Winds Northerly 50 km/h. Freezing level Lowering to 1300 metres overnight.

Sliding Danger

Conditions have changed; new snow fell last week, but the sun has been out, causing melt-freeze conditions. Crampons and an ice axe are a good idea, as many firmer areas now exist.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered