Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Jasper.
Keep your objectives short and close to home if traveling in the Back Country. Small injuries will have serious consequences with the frigid temperatures.
Weather Forecast
The next two days will remain cold, -20 to -30C, no new snow, relatively sunny, and light NE winds. Sunday to Tuesday it is warming up a little bit each day where maybe it might be -7C on Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
The cold continues to promote rapid facetting in the upper 40cm. This is slowing slab development within the the recent Feb 3rd 40cm of storm surface snow. The mid-pack has remained strong and supportive but is showing signs of loosing strength with the prolonged arctic influence, especially where it is shallow.
Avalanche Summary
Thursday's field patrol to the Icefields noted numerous windslabs in the high alpine, cornice triggered, 50-90cm deep and 48-72 hours old. A loose dry widespread cycle up to size 2 occurred more recently, all elevations, steep rocky terrain, with some being triggered by the sun but not all.
Confidence
Due to the quality of field observations
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Recent windslab activity is noted in very high elevation windloaded ridgetop features. It seems to require a large trigger such as cornice failures to initiate or potentially a shallow location where a skiers weight may be enough.
- Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.
- Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
Aspects: North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Cornices
Cold temperatures are making cornices brittle and prone to failure. Keep a healthy distance away both when traveling below, or near corniced features.
- Avoid travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.
- Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on ridges.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Loose Dry
Surface snow continues to lose cohesion and structure making specific areas susceptible to light triggers like direct solar influence, and excitable riders. Sluff awareness and management will be very important in steep and/or confined lines.
- On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger slabs or larger sluffs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5