Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 2nd, 2021 1:00AM
The alpine rating is Wet Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Storm Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeSummary
Past Weather
Cold temperatures (below zero degrees) and strong to moderate precipitation have left the mountain environment on Vancouver Island with 40cm to 70+cm of new snow. Warmer air temperatures Monday Feb 1st have brought additional snow and possibly rain to the Below Treeline elevation band.
Weather Forecast
The weather pattern for Vancouver island will be quite dynamic for the next several days. Unfortunately, incoming weather is such that the current snowpack instabilities will not see an improvement to stability in the short term.Tuesday (10 cm Snow to 25 cm Snow), Moderate Southerly winds gusting to strong Southerly winds in the afternoon, Freezing level 850MWednesday: (5 cm Snow to 10cm Snow ), Moderate winds from the North, Freezing level 950MThursday (Less than 10cm Snow for North Island) and (5mm Rain for Below Treeline and Treeline Elevation band for South and mid-island), Extreme winds from the Southwest, Freezing level begins at 700M elevation in morning and rises to 1700M elevation late afternoon.
Terrain Advice
Keep to simple terrain (terrain under 30 degrees slope angle) and utilize small slopes to test the reactivity of the recent snowfall.Keep an eye on snowfall rates, wind transport and rising temperatures for your area, as this promotes slab formation and âtouchy/easily triggeredâ conditions.Be cautious when route-finding and transitioning from scoured areas into areas of wind loaded snow.Avoid open and steep slopes during periods of warming and rain. A small loose wet avalanche will entrain and gain enough mass to push a mountain traveller into gullies and over cliffs.Tree well hazards will pose a major hazard this weekend if the forecasted precipitation/winds arrive as predicted. Keep an eye on your riding group and ride in pairs.Avoid travelling above or below cornices and keep to conservative decision-making.
Snowpack Summary
Over the weekend, 40 cm to 70cm of snow fell and was transported by southeast winds creating slabs in the current affected areas. This overlies a sandwich of reactive melt-freeze crusts and persistent weak layers (PWL's) within the upper 60-80 cm of the upper snowpack. Below this, the snowpack is well settled.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: 40cm to 70cm of new snow
- Upper: Two persistent weak layers (contributing to dangerous avalanche conditions on Vancouver Island)
- Mid: Well settled and dense.
- Lower: Well settled and dense.
Confidence
High -
Problems
Wet Slabs
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Likelihood
Expected Size
Storm Slabs
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 3rd, 2021 1:00AM