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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 8th, 2013–Mar 9th, 2013
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

The avalanche hazard will spike in the afternoon with warm temperatures and intense solar radiation.  The Maligne Road remains closed , avalanche control planned on Saturday afternoon.  A late afternoon closure of the Icefields Parkway is possible. 

Weather Forecast

The freezing level will approach 1800 m on Saturday afternoon with clear skies.  Winds will be light from the SW.  On Sunday, temperatures will moderate, skies will cloud over and light flurries are possible.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow appears to be bonding well to previous surfaces.  Soft slabs are developing below alpine lee ridge lines with gusty moderate SW winds . At lower elevations, this snow is sitting on a weak and faceted midpack. Snow that is plastered to steep rocky terrain will most likely sluff once exposed to the sun for prolonged periods.

Avalanche Summary

Temperatures today remained below freezing, however, several size 1-2 wet snow avalanches were observed on steep south facing slopes below treeline due to intense solar radiation.  On Saturday, temperatures will approach double digits with high solar radiation, this will result in a High avalanche danger.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Solar radiation and warm daytime temperatures will start to melt the new snow and penetrate the snowpack. This will create moist or wet point release avalanches on steep solar aspects at lower elevation to treeline.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Finish ice climbs early in the day before the temperature rises.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Soft slabs are beginning to build along alpine ridgelines with moderate SW winds.  Otherwise, the storm slabs remain soft in nature as winds have yet to firm them up. Soft slab conditions also exist on gully sidewalls and some large alpine slopes.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

As the sun peaks out and warms up the day, loose avalanches with significant mass are occurring with increased frequency. They are initiating out of steep W or S facing high elevation rocks or gullies.
Avoid ice climbs that are exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3