Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

mike eder, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Avalanche danger could increase dramatically through Thursday night if the snowfall exceeds the forecasted amount.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Weather forecasts indicate up to 15-20cm of snow starting Thursday night in the Icefields area while lesser amounts will be seen in Jasper and the Maligne lake area. Temperatures will remain warm through Thursday and then drop to -15 - 20 C overnight on the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is characteristic of early season conditions, with a weak structure and highly variable distribution. The Icefields area snowpack consists of several supportive windslabs over basal facets. Test results confirm that if a windslab layer releases in the upper snowpack, it could collapse the basal facets and slide full depth to ground.

Avalanche Summary

On December 31, several new slab avalanches were observed on cross loaded features at tree line and above. A skier accidental size 1.5 slab occurred at treeline on a Northeast aspect in an open slope. The skier went for a short ride and was buried waist deep.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

A shallow spot in the snowpack could trigger a windslab which in turn would step down and release the entire snowpack.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Avoid steep, open slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Lee aspects have an upper snowpack consisting of several hard windslabs which could release and affect the layers below it.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depthCaution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2014 4:00PM