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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2014–Jan 2nd, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Avalanche danger could increase dramatically through Thursday night if the snowfall exceeds the forecasted amount.

Weather Forecast

Weather forecasts indicate up to 15-20cm of snow starting Thursday night in the Icefields area while lesser amounts will be seen in Jasper and the Maligne lake area. Temperatures will remain warm through Thursday and then drop to -15 - 20 C  overnight on the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is characteristic of early season conditions, with a weak structure and highly variable distribution.  The Icefields area snowpack consists of several supportive windslabs over basal facets. Test results confirm that if a windslab layer releases in the upper snowpack, it could collapse the basal facets and slide full depth to ground.

Avalanche Summary

On December 31, several new slab avalanches were observed on cross loaded features at tree line and above.  A skier accidental size 1.5 slab occurred at treeline on a Northeast aspect in an open slope. The skier went for a short ride and was buried waist deep.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

  A shallow spot in the snowpack could trigger a windslab which in turn would step down and release the entire snowpack.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Avoid steep, open slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Lee aspects have an upper snowpack consisting of several hard windslabs which could release and affect the layers below it.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depthCaution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2