Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 7th, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Wind Slabs.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

The avalanche danger will rise in direct relation to the amount of snow over the next 2 days. The distribution of the Dec3 surface hoar is still in question, and the new snow may trigger large slides where this layer is preserved.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Continued snow as a series of storms roll over the area. Expecting up to 40 cm accumulated by Wednesday night. Moderate to strong SW winds with mild temps. Freezing levels remaining consistent at around 1500m throughout the storm.

Snowpack Summary

25cm of new snow in past 72 hours appears to be bonding well to a breakable sun crust on steep solar aspects. On shady aspects the crust did not form, and the Dec3 surface hoar can be found in isolated sheltered locations at treeline. The snowpack is shallow and faceted below treeline, more supportive above 1900m. Extensive scouring in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Weather models indicating 40mm over the next 36 hours. This significant load will be accompanied by SW winds, leading to new slab formation on lee aspects. The Dec3 layer will be down 60cm if this snow arrives, and will warrant careful investigation.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

The recent storm snow has been blown around by gusty winds, primarily from the SW. Cross loaded gully features in the alpine should be avoided during the next few days.

Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Dec 8th, 2015 4:00PM