Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 7th, 2015–Dec 8th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

The avalanche danger will rise in direct relation to the amount of snow over the next 2 days. The distribution of the Dec3 surface hoar is still in question, and the new snow may trigger large slides where this layer is preserved.

Weather Forecast

Continued snow as a series of storms roll over the area. Expecting up to 40 cm accumulated by Wednesday night. Moderate to strong SW winds with mild temps. Freezing levels remaining consistent at around 1500m throughout the storm.

Snowpack Summary

25cm of new snow in past 72 hours appears to be bonding well to a breakable sun crust on steep solar aspects. On shady aspects the crust did not form, and the Dec3 surface hoar can be found in isolated sheltered locations at treeline. The snowpack is shallow and faceted below treeline, more supportive above 1900m. Extensive scouring in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Weather models indicating 40mm over the next 36 hours. This significant load will be accompanied by SW winds, leading to new slab formation on lee aspects. The Dec3 layer will be down 60cm if this snow arrives, and will warrant careful investigation.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

The recent storm snow has been blown around by gusty winds, primarily from the SW. Cross loaded gully features in the alpine should be avoided during the next few days.

Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3