Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 2nd, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

a.l. horton, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Stay well away from solar exposed ice climbs. These are failing big. Plan for early starts and being out of avalanche terrain by mid-day.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The freezing level will be around tree-line overnight. Light precipitation possible overnight on Saturday.Â Clear skies with continued warm temperatures on Sunday with Mod to Strong SW winds.Â Overcast on MondayÂ freezing level staying high with some precipitation possible. Similar conditions expected on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Snow conditions are isothermal below 2200m, warm snowpack into the Alpine even on Northerly facing aspects. Persistent slab present at tree line and above. The snowpack at all elevations has a weak base and several mid-pack weaknesses. Many areas below tree line are under threshold especially lower elevations and southerly aspects.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread avalanche cycle continues (beginning on Thursday). Point releases and wet slab avalanches to size 3 running at all elevations primarily on solar aspects. Fewer slides are occurring on northerly terrain.Â The Weeping Wall main curtain collapsed in past 48 hrs and we are expecting to see the same thing happen on similar features.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem is active. When triggered, it will be big with serious consequences. Warm and sunny conditions will increase this danger. Steep sun facing rocks, cornice failures, and loose avalanches from above are on going.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Loose Wet

The problem will remain active over the weekend with freezing levels reaching 2,400m. The danger rating will increase particularly on thin snowpack zones. Loose avalanches can initiate larger avalanches below.

Be very cautious with gully features.Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Increase occurrence of cornice failures are being noted. It can act as a large trigger initiating deep weaknesses plus their sheer mass, whether or not it initiates an avalanche, would be like being hit by a car.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating. Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 3rd, 2016 4:00PM