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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 2nd, 2016–Apr 3rd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Stay well away from solar exposed ice climbs.  These are failing big.  Plan for early starts and being out of avalanche terrain by mid-day.

Weather Forecast

The freezing level will be around tree-line overnight. Light precipitation possible overnight on Saturday.  Clear skies with continued warm temperatures on Sunday with Mod to Strong SW winds.  Overcast on Monday  freezing level staying high with some precipitation possible. Similar conditions expected on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Snow conditions are isothermal below 2200m, warm snowpack into the Alpine even on Northerly facing aspects. Persistent slab present at tree line and above. The snowpack at all elevations has a weak base and several mid-pack weaknesses. Many areas below tree line are under threshold especially lower elevations and southerly aspects.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread avalanche cycle continues (beginning on Thursday). Point releases and wet slab avalanches to size 3 running at all elevations primarily on solar aspects. Fewer slides are occurring on northerly terrain.  The Weeping Wall main curtain collapsed in past 48 hrs and we are expecting to see the same thing happen on similar features.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem is active. When triggered, it will be big with serious consequences. Warm and sunny conditions will increase this danger. Steep sun facing rocks, cornice failures, and loose avalanches from above are on going.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Wet

The problem will remain active over the weekend with freezing levels reaching 2,400m. The danger rating will increase particularly on thin snowpack zones. Loose avalanches can initiate larger avalanches below. 
Be very cautious with gully features.Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Increase occurrence of cornice failures are being noted. It can act as a large trigger initiating deep weaknesses plus their sheer mass, whether or not it initiates an avalanche, would be like being hit by a car.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating. Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2