Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to variable snowpack conditions

Friday night/Saturday: Moderate to strong SW winds. Moderate snowfall overnight, easing to light on Saturday. Alpine temperature around -6.Sunday: Moderate to strong NW winds. Light to moderate snow, starting late in the day. Alpine temperature around -4.Monday: Light to moderate W winds. Light to moderate snow. Alpine temperature around -8.

Several size 1 soft slabs and loose snow avalanches were observed on NE-NW aspects on Friday. Explosives testing also led to several size 1-2.5 slabs which failed on a crust on SE to SW aspects over the last couple of days.

At the time of writing, 10-30 cm of snow overlies weak interfaces buried in mid-February (mainly surface hoar/ sun crust layers). By Saturday morning, there may be a deeper storm slab above these interfaces, with the potential for wide propagations and surprisingly large avalanches. Where winds have shifted the snow into slabs in the lee of terrain breaks, the size and likelihood of avalanches will be greatest. I feel that the snowpack is approaching a tipping point in this region, and may follow the pattern observed further north last week (numerous skier-triggered avalanches, including a few surprising remote-triggers on the mid-Feb weaknesses). Exactly when and where a cohesive storm slab will develop will vary locally according to the distribution of buried weaknesses and the amount of snowfall and wind.Older snowpack weaknesses buried in the upper snowpack (Feb 4th and Jan 23 surface hoar/facet/sun crust layers) are still being tracked by professionals but have not been reactive recently. The lower snowpack is generally well settled.