Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Overnight and Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to end overnight after a few more cm of snow falls above 1000 metres elevation. Winds becoming very strong and gusty in the afternoon as the next Pacific system moves in quickly from the South Coast bringing 10-15 cm.Wednesday: Snow ending by morning as the winds become light Westerly and the freezing level lowers to about 800 metres.Thursday: Overcast with flurries and light Southwest winds.
Avalanche Summary
No new reports of avalanche activity. I suspect easy triggering in and below the storm slab of 50-80 cm.
Snowpack Summary
10-30 cm of new snow combined with strong Southwest winds overnight, brings the storm snow up to 50-80 cm. Below the storm snow there is about 20 cm of snow from last week that buried the late January layer of crusts and/or facets and surface hoar. This persistent weak layer from Late January continues to be the sliding layer for natural and human triggered avalanches. The mid snowpack is well settled and strong. The deeply buried weak layers of early season facets and depth hoar have been dormant, but they may become reactive with the right combination of added load and warm temperatures. The forecast new snow and wind are expected to add to the load above the late January weak layer, and may result in avalanches running naturally or increased sensitivity to human triggers at this interface.
triley,
Avalanche Canada
