Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2023–Jan 29th, 2023

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kakwa, Tumbler.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the reactivity of deeply buried weak layers. Conditions like this are best managed by sticking to lower-angle terrain away from any overhead hazard.

Read more in the latest Forecaster Blog.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the past few days in the region, however observations are limited.

Looking forward, wind slabs will continue to form but concern for step-down and large natural and human-triggered deep persistent slab avalanches is at the forefront of our minds. Check out this video on incremental loading to learn more.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

Northerly winds have impacted 10-30 cm recent snow at upper elevations. Previous warm temperatures and precipitation have left a crust below recent snow at lower treeline elevations and on steep solar aspects.

Snowpack depths are shallower than average, and several buried weak layers have been a concern over the past few weeks. Surface hoar or crust layers in the mid-snowpack may exist in this region.

The most concerning layer in this area is at the base of the snowpack. Large, weak facets buried in November are widespread. This layer is most likely problematic in steep, rocky alpine terrain, where shallower wind slab avalanches can scrub down to these basal facets.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Clear and with gusty ridgetop winds. Ridge wind northwest 15-30 km/hr. Alpine temperature -25 C.

Sunday

Sunny in the morning with increasing clouds throughout the day. Ridge wind northwest 20-40 km/hr. Alpine temperature -18 C.

Monday

Increasing cloud. Ridge wind west 30-50 km/hr. Alpine temperature rising to -12 C.

Tuesday

Flurries, 5 cm. Ridge wind west 30-40 km/hr. Alpine temperatures -14 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent north and easterly winds have redistributed recent snow and pressed surfaces. Expected continued transport and new slabs where wind impacts loose snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer of large and weak facets sits near the base of the snowpack. This layer has been most reactive in upper treeline/lower alpine elevations. Riders are most likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer in steep, shallow previously undisturbed terrain, or by first triggering a layer further up in the snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5