Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 9th, 2015 9:10AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Sea To Sky.

Uncertainty surrounding a dynamic freezing level will likely keep alpine danger ratings elevated through the week.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday looks dry and warm with a freezing level around 1800m. Winds are expected to be light at all elevations. Wednesday also looks dry, but winds are expected to kick up a bit, look for Strong SW winds at ridgetop and light variable winds at treeline. The freezing level should climb to around 2200m by Wednesday afternoon. Strong SW winds at ridgetop should continue into Thursday as the freezing level continues to climb. The freezing level could be as high as 3000m by Thursday evening.

Avalanche Summary

Control work on Sunday produced storm slabs to size 2.5 with crown depths of 50 to 150cm. This is a slight reduction in size from Saturday's control work that produced storm slab avalanches to size 3 running 50 to 150cm in depth on the early February crust.

Snowpack Summary

The wet warm storm produced 30 to 100cm of snow above 2200m. Warm temperatures are driving rapid settlement of the storm snow, the average depth of snow above the stout and supportive Early February Rain Crust is now around 70cm. Shears on both the mid storm instabilities and the February Crust continue to strengthen. It's not your typical early February snowpack, the snow below 2000m is wet, and a saturated slush on crust setup can be found below treeline. All avalanche activity has occurred on either mid storm instabilities or the crust. We have not received any reports of avalanches failing below the crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Warm temps should continue to help the storm snow to settle and stabilize on Tuesday. The storm slab may become more sensitive to human triggering Wednesday as wind speed and freezing level increase. Stay alert for changing conditions.

The new snow will likely require a bit more time to settle and stabilize.>Slopes receiving direct sun for the first time since the storm could produce natural avalanches.>If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 6

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches should be most problematic below treeline Tuesday, but they could be a problem at upper elevations as the freezing level begins to climb mid-week.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be very cautious with gully features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 10th, 2015 2:00PM