Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Wednesday Night: Mainly cloudy with flurries starting in the south of the region and continuing into Thursday. Alpine low -7, light to moderate southwest wind.

Thursday: Cloudy with flurries concentrated in the south of the region, accumulating 5-10 cm there with less in the north. Alpine temperature -5, moderate southwest wind.

Friday: Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulation, alpine temperature -6, light west wind.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulation, alpine temperature -7, light northwest wind.

It is important to keep in mind the potential for large, deep avalanches. Many of the reported avalanches in the previous storm cycle released on the weak layer buried in late November. As recently as Monday, up to size 2.5 avalanches have been observed, one of which released on the early season facet layer over glacial ice high in the alpine. Settlements and whumpfing, likely on basal facets, have been reported below treeline in response to skier traffic.

A total depth of 150-250 cm of snow sits in the alpine in central parts of the region. The top third of the snowpack continues to settle and gain density in the relatively warm temperatures. 

The primary layers of concern are a couple of weak layers in the mid snowpack (60-120 cm below the surface), formed in late November and early December which can be found most notably at treeline, and may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect. These types of weak layers are typical failure planes, on which overlying slabs can start to slide and produce avalanches. 

Below, a variety of facet/crust layers from late October are buried near the bottom of the snowpack and are not active with respect to avalanche activity at this point in the season.