Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

A ridge of high pressure brings dry and partly sunny conditions for Friday before a weak storm system arrives Friday night. 

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, light variable wind, freezing levels dropping to around 500 m. 

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, wind becoming strong SW in the afternoon, freezing levels reaching around 1500 m. 

Friday night and Saturday: Snowfall up to 15 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels reaching around 1300 m.

Sunday: Snowfall, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level reaching around 800 m.

On Wednesday, numerous natural wind slabs up to size 2 were reported south of Valemount on a variety of aspects above 1800 m which were typically 30 cm thick. Further west, a skier remotely triggered a size 2 wind slab on a north aspect at treeline which was 40 cm thick. No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday. On Monday, natural avalanches up to size 2 were observed and skiers were triggering size 1 wind slabs at treeline. 

On Friday, the avalanche hazard is uncertain and will likely depend on the extent and thickness of a new surface crust. Where the skies are clear and the freezing levels drop substantially, a thick crust and lower hazard can be expected. Storm slabs will remain a concern at higher elevations, especially in wind loaded terrain.

On Thursday, freezing levels climbed to at least treeline. With temperatures expected to drop on Thursday night, a widespread surface crust is expected to form. Below the new crust, 30-50 cm of recent storm snow is settling rapidly with the mild temperatures. This recent storm snow overlies the January 10 interface which may include weak facets and/or surface hoar. 

There have been isolated reports of two buried surface hoar layers between 30 and 90 cm deep in the Barkerville area. Due to few recent observations in this area, it's wise to assume that these layers remain in play and still have the potential to fail under the weight of a rider. Forecast new snow and warming add to this potential.

The early-December crust/facet interface can typically be found down 50-150 cm but has been dormant recently and is no longer expected to be creating an avalanche problem in the region. 

• Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
• Avoid being on or under sun exposed slopes.