Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 13th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
Hazard will likely depend on the extent of cooling and new crust formation Thursday night. Storm slabs are expected to remain touchy up high where the snow remains dry, especially in wind loaded terrain. Use extra caution around steep south facing slopes if the sun is strong.
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure brings dry and partly sunny conditions for Friday before a weak storm system arrives Friday night.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy, light variable wind, freezing levels dropping to around 500 m.
Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, wind becoming strong SW in the afternoon, freezing levels reaching around 1500 m.
Friday night and Saturday: Snowfall up to 15 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels reaching around 1300 m.
Sunday: Snowfall, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level reaching around 800 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, numerous natural wind slabs up to size 2 were reported south of Valemount on a variety of aspects above 1800 m which were typically 30 cm thick. Further west, a skier remotely triggered a size 2 wind slab on a north aspect at treeline which was 40 cm thick. No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday. On Monday, natural avalanches up to size 2 were observed and skiers were triggering size 1 wind slabs at treeline.
On Friday, the avalanche hazard is uncertain and will likely depend on the extent and thickness of a new surface crust. Where the skies are clear and the freezing levels drop substantially, a thick crust and lower hazard can be expected. Storm slabs will remain a concern at higher elevations, especially in wind loaded terrain.
Snowpack Summary
On Thursday, freezing levels climbed to at least treeline. With temperatures expected to drop on Thursday night, a widespread surface crust is expected to form. Below the new crust, 30-50 cm of recent storm snow is settling rapidly with the mild temperatures. This recent storm snow overlies the January 10 interface which may include weak facets and/or surface hoar.
There have been isolated reports of two buried surface hoar layers between 30 and 90 cm deep in the Barkerville area. Due to few recent observations in this area, it's wise to assume that these layers remain in play and still have the potential to fail under the weight of a rider. Forecast new snow and warming add to this potential.
The early-December crust/facet interface can typically be found down 50-150 cm but has been dormant recently and is no longer expected to be creating an avalanche problem in the region.
Terrain and Travel
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
- Avoid being on or under sun exposed slopes.
Problems
Storm Slabs
A reactive storm slab should be expected where the snow surface remains dry and crust-free at higher elevations. They will be most reactive in wind loaded terrain.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
At lower elevations where the snow surface remains moist or wet, human triggered wet loose avalanches remain possible on steep slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 14th, 2022 4:00PM
