We are entering a 'low probability/high consequence' phase with a tricky persistent weak layer. Check out this
new blog post on difficult decision making and current conditions.Avoid large, unsupported slopes, especially on north aspects.
Summary
Confidence
Fair
Weather Forecast
A weak system will bring precipitation to the region Thursday night and Friday. Meanwhile, arctic air begins to push into the region on Friday. On Saturday and Sunday, weak disturbance from the south will mix with the cold air and may result in light scattered flurries.Thurs. Night/Friday: Snowfall 5-10cm, treeline temperature around -15C, ridgetop winds 10-20 km/h variableSaturday: A mix of sun and cloud, scattered flurries 0-2cm, treeline temperature around -20C, ridgetop winds 10-20 km/h NESunday: A mix of sun and cloud, scattered flurries 1-5cm, treeline temperature around -20C, ridgetop winds 30-50 km/h SW
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, we received reports of several natural size 2.5 avalanches from steeper terrain features on south and west aspects triggered by the sun. Also reported was a size 1 skier-triggered wind slab and three size 1 cornices triggered by explosives near Fernie.
Snowpack Summary
The primary concern remains a persistent slab 80-120 cm thick that sits on a stubborn persistent weak layer consisting of a crust, facets, and/or surface hoar. It continues to show sudden planar shears at the interface and a high degree of sensitivity to human triggers. Wide propagations and remote triggering remain a concern. Check out the
South Rockies Blog for a video of a snowpack test on this layer. Variable winds have transported some of the surface snow, building wind slabs on leeward slopes. Large cornices remain a concern along ridge lines and threaten the slopes below. South facing slopes have formed a sun crust on the snow surface. New surface hoar formation up to 4mm and near-surface faceting are also being reported. A weakness at the base of the snowpack may still exist in isolated areas of the region but triggering has become unlikely.