Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2016 10:21AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Saturday looks like another warm day in the alpine, so continue to avoid being on or underneath terrain that's basking in the sun. Watch for small wind slabs lurking on all aspects immediately lee of ridge crest.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

There is a big atmospheric shift going on right now. We seem to be moving away from the nice active pattern into more of a classical El Nino pattern. There is a small blip of a storm that may impact the Coast Monday, but it looks high and dry for the extended future. SATURDAY: Freezing level at valley bottom, potential for above freezing temperatures between 1700 m and 2600 m, light variable wind, no precipitation. SUNDAY: Freezing level at valley bottom, light S/SW wind, no precipitation. MONDAY: Freezing level at valley bottom, light/moderate SW wind, no precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday control work produced loose dry avalanches to size 1 on E and NE aspects. On Wednesday control work produced a size 2 storm slab on a high elevation east facing feature. Previous to this, the last reported avalanche activity was on Sunday when a group of sledders triggered or remotely triggered a slab avalanche size 2.0 about 2 km south of Castle Mountain that resulted in one rider deploying his airbag and being partially buried. More details here: http://bit.ly/1TqhuQf

Snowpack Summary

As our field team travels around the region they are seeing very little wind effect. There is around 110 - 150 cm of snow on the ground at 2250 metres. The upper snowpack consists of about 40 cm of loose dry snow above 10 cm of cold facets that have been producing variable moderate to hard shears in snowpack tests. The storm snow is unconsolidated and earlier in the week the field team remarked that even the small larch trees still had new snow on them; continued evidence of very little in the way of wind. There may be more wind effect at higher elevations. These observations are consistent with reports from near Castle Mountain with storm snow above facets.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Light northerly winds may be forming thin wind slabs in unusual locations. Previous SW/W winds created wind slabs that are getting old & tired, but may still be sensitive to triggering immediately lee of ridge crest.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading has created thin wind slabs.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Another day of relatively warm alpine temps and sunshine may initiate natural dry, moist and wet loose avalanches, especially on solar aspects.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, time of day and aspect.>Avoid steep sun exposed terrain like rocky cliffs and cut banks when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2016 2:00PM