Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Another 5-8 cm of snow is expected from flurries during the evening and overnight into Sunday. The freezing level should drop back down to valley bottoms. Sunday is forecast to be a mixed bag of convective flurries and some sunny periods, with the freezing level rising up to about 700 metres. High pressure should have moved well into the region by Monday, bringing mostly clear skies and light north or northeast winds and cooler temperatures. The region should continue to be under the influence of high pressure on Tuesday. Expect clear skies and cold overnight temperatures.

Natural avalanches have become less frequent, but human triggered avalanches continue to release from light additional loads. The forecast new snow and wind may cause new windslabs that may overload the PWL in some areas.

In southern and western parts of the region, 50-60 cm of recent snow sits on a highly reactive weak layer of crusts, surface hoar and facets. At 1950 metres elevation we have some snow pack test results that show that the 40 cm slab of snow above the February 8th weak layer is sliding with easy to moderate forces applied and it is propagating widely with either sudden planar or sudden collapse characteristics. The slab is reported to be less consolidated on northerly aspects than it is on southerly aspects. In areas further north, less snow has fallen on this interface--in the northern Elk Valley for instance, only around 15-20 cm lies above this interface. In lower snow areas, avalanche activity will likely lag behind higher snow areas, except for areas which have seen significant wind transport. In general, the mid-pack is quite strong in most locations. However, lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones.