Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Confidence
High - A lot of field data and weather models in close agreement.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Things are very stable currently and should remain that way for this entire forecast period. Wind slabs may still linger from mid last weeks extreme wind event so be cautious and observant in the alpine and near ridge top at treeline on N-W aspects. Temperatures will climb into the positive Wednesday and may create loose wet avalanches. While these will be small, loose wet avalanches carry a hefty punch and when combined with terrain traps can be dangerous. Avoid exposure , during this warm period, above cliffs, depressions and tree bands when there are large steep slopes above that are being heated by the sun.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches reported over the past forecast period. A few small pinwheels were observed below treeline and treeline on direct solar aspects off trees and rocky outcrops during the clear sunny period mid day Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
Very small accumulations of new snow for the entire forecast region Sunday with some of the new precipitation falling as graupel. Widespread Surface hoar from a clear cold Saturday night remains intact and is now buried below the few centimetres of new snow on all aspects at treeline and below treeline. Upper: These surface layers sit on a second thick and deeper graupel layer, and this covers old snow (from mid last weeks wind/snow event) on non solar locations or over a thin non supportive crust on all direct solar locations (crust due to the clear warm mid day Saturday). Mid: Well settled and bonded storm snow with multiple thick crusts (including the valentines day crust). Lower:Â Well settled.
Snowpack Details
Trace of new snow with graupel and buried surface hoar. Upper: Deep graupel layer (1-3 cm) and old snow non solar, thin crust direct solar. Mid: Well settled with multiple crusts. Lower: Well settled.
Past Weather
Small accumulations of new snow with convective activity creating some graupel. Solar aspects warmed by a clear warm weather window Saturday afternoon. Clear cold weather Saturday night tightening the snowpack with surface hoar growth. Sunday a trace of new snow and some more graupel during the day. Light winds with little to no snow transport.
Weather Forecast
Generally benign. Very light snowfall and winds until Wednesday, when things start to warm up ushering the approach of the next big snow/weather event starting Thursday. Monday: Trace to 2 cm of new snow, light winds from the W, temps around -6 all day, freezing level 0- 900 m. Tuesday: 1 to 5 cm of new snow, light to moderate SW winds, temps -6 to -4, freezing level 0- 1000 m. Wednesday: a trace to no new snow, light rising to moderate winds from the SE, temps -4 jumping into the positive near + 1, freezing level 300 up to 1400 m.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2