Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 12th, 2014 8:22AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight: 10 to 15 cm forecast, freezing level may rise to 800m in parts of the forecast area. Mod to strong winds from the W .Monday: 15 to 20cm precipitation in the forecast. Winds strong from the NW, freezing levels rising to 1000m .Tuesday: Light precipitation, winds changing to W, freezing levels may rise to 1300m.Wednesday: Light flurries, moderate to strong winds from the west, freezing levels may rise to 1400m in parts of the forecast area.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of avalanche activity in the past few days have been sparse, this is more likely as a result of poor traveling conditions and inability to get out and look at the terrain.. A widespread natural cycle is expected to have taken place as a result of the large amount of new snow, rising temperatures and high winds. Wind slabs and shallow snowpack areas are places of highest concern now. The possibility of a relatively small to medium size avalanche stepping down to buried weak layers is high. This could produce a very large and destructive avalanche.

Snowpack Summary

More than 75 cm of recent storm snow overlies a variety of old snow surfaces, ranging from stiff wind slabs to soft facetted snow and/or surface hoar that was buried around Jan. 8th. A rain crust below the 1600m elevation band should now be buried over a metre, and another surface hoar or facet layer is down 160 + cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general around 200cm of snow can be found at tree line with 130 to over 300 cm in the alpine. In some places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season). The basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground was active in an avalanche cycle last week. This weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, could result in very large, destructive avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Large amounts of new snow combined with high winds and rising temperatures are setting the stage for a widespread natural avalanche cycle.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Jan 13th, 2014 2:00PM