Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Overnight: 10 to 15 cm forecast, freezing level may rise to 800m in parts of the forecast area. Mod to strong winds from the W .Monday: 15 to 20cm precipitation in the forecast. Winds strong from the NW, freezing levels rising to 1000m .Tuesday: Light precipitation, winds changing to W, freezing levels may rise to 1300m.Wednesday: Light flurries, moderate to strong winds from the west, freezing levels may rise to 1400m in parts of the forecast area.

Reports of avalanche activity in the past few days have been sparse, this is more likely as a result of poor traveling conditions and inability to get out and look at the terrain.. A widespread natural cycle is expected to have taken place as a result of the large amount of new snow, rising temperatures and high winds. Wind slabs and shallow snowpack areas are places of highest concern now. The possibility of a relatively small to medium size avalanche stepping down to buried weak layers is high. This could produce a very large and destructive avalanche.

More than 75 cm of recent storm snow overlies a variety of old snow surfaces, ranging from stiff wind slabs to soft facetted snow and/or surface hoar that was buried around Jan. 8th. A rain crust below the 1600m elevation band should now be buried over a metre, and another surface hoar or facet layer is down 160 + cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general around 200cm of snow can be found at tree line with 130 to over 300 cm in the alpine. In some places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season). The basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground was active in an avalanche cycle last week. This weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, could result in very large, destructive avalanches.