Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 23rd, 2013 9:25AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada slemieux, Avalanche Canada

Change in mindset is recommended, like choosing more conservative terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night and Thursday: Precipitation tapering off overnight as the system moves across the region. Winds should pick up in the evening to moderate speeds from the SW-W and slow down a bit during the day Thursday. Temperatures lowering to around -9 C in the alpine and freezing levels at the surface. Friday:  Another system is approaching which should leave some light precipitation during the day (more over the W slopes of the Columbias) with moderate W winds that should ease in the afternoon. Similar temperatures are expected. Saturday: More precipitation, cool temperatures and lighter winds from the W.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche was reported.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow accompanied by strong SW-W winds is creating loose snow concern in sheltered areas and new wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline on lee slopes. These new layers will most likely be touchy for a certain time and could also put on the needed load to awake the deeper instabilities that have been unreactive to skier traffic lately. The new snow will be sitting on a variety of surfaces; sun crust on S facing slopes, surface hoar layer and facets in sheltered areas and windslabs in the alpine and under ridges at treeline. The early January surface hoar layer found under the top 50-70 cm, which has been unreactive to skier traffic but still producing sudden planar shears especially under the elevation of 1500 m. in sheltered areas, could become more reactive with this added load. Under these concerning layers, a strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack, which is now considered inactive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Storm snow might not bond to a variety of surfaces. New windslabs found on lee side of the forecasted strong SW-W winds in alpine and at treeline will most likely be touchy.
Avoid areas where sluffing may have severe consequences.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
The load from the storm snow could awaken the early January surface hoar layer. Distribution is patchy in sheltered areas and has been more reactive on S and SW aspects.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Jan 24th, 2013 2:00PM