Avalanche hazard is on the rise and tricky conditions exist.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
A Pacific frontal system reaches the Interior Tuesday afternoon bringing snow amounts anywhere from 10-15 cm by Wednesday midday. This will be accompanied by moderate west ridgetop winds, switching NW by the afternoon. Treeline freezing levels will hover around 1000 m. By Thursday an upper ridge will build behind the cold front bringing cooler conditions with mostly cloudy skies and some flurries.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, numerous natural, skier triggered and remotely triggered avalanches occurred from distances up to 40 m away. Most of these were size 1-2. These avalanches have been failing on a buried surface hoar layer 30-60 cm down, and with new snow and wind in the forecast the slab above this layer will grow thicker. Best case scenario is that the new storm snow will initiate a widespread natural avalanche cycle, however; if it doesn't reach its tipping point then it will very likely be primed for rider triggers.
Snowpack Summary
New snow 10-15 cm, accompanied by moderate-strong SW winds will add additional load to the upper snowpack. This brings storm snow totals 30-60 cm above a touchy surface hoar/ facet/ crust interface that was buried mid-December. Below 2100 m this storm slab sits on a thick, solid crust that has been reacting as a perfect sliding layer. Storm slabs will blanket the region and be very touchy to the weight of a skier/ rider, especially in locations that has seen wind effect. A hard rain crust with facets from early November is buried over 1 m down and is still reactive to light loads in some locations.
swerner,
Avalanche Canada
