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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 23rd, 2014–Dec 24th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Avalanche hazard is on the rise and tricky conditions exist.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

A Pacific frontal system reaches the Interior Tuesday afternoon bringing snow amounts anywhere from 10-15 cm by Wednesday midday. This will be accompanied by moderate west ridgetop winds, switching NW by the afternoon. Treeline freezing levels will hover around 1000 m. By Thursday an upper ridge will build behind the cold front bringing cooler conditions with mostly cloudy skies and some flurries.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, numerous natural, skier triggered and remotely triggered avalanches occurred from distances up to 40 m away. Most of these were size 1-2. These avalanches have been failing on a buried surface hoar layer 30-60 cm down, and with new snow and wind in the forecast the slab above this layer will grow thicker. Best case scenario is that the new storm snow will initiate a widespread natural avalanche cycle, however; if it doesn't reach its tipping point then it will very likely be primed for rider triggers.

Snowpack Summary

New snow 10-15 cm, accompanied by moderate-strong SW winds will add additional load to the upper snowpack. This brings storm snow totals 30-60 cm above a touchy surface hoar/ facet/ crust interface that was buried mid-December. Below 2100 m this storm slab sits on a thick, solid crust that has been reacting as a perfect sliding layer. Storm slabs will blanket the region and be very touchy to the weight of a skier/ rider, especially in locations that has seen wind effect. A hard rain crust with facets from early November is buried over 1 m down and is still reactive to light loads in some locations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A thick storm slab sits over a predominant surface hoar layer which has been very touchy to rider triggers. With additional snow, natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are very likely.
Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind. >Stick to simple terrain, small features with limited consequence and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

There is still the potential to trigger a deeply buried weak layer, resulting in a surprisingly large avalanche. Smaller avalanches running on the surface hoar layer may also act as a trigger.
Avoid common trigger zones including thin snowpack areas, near rocky outcrops, and steep alpine slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5