Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Monday: Expect clouds to build through the day, with flurries beginning in the late afternoon and continuing into the evening. Westerly winds will increase to 40km/h as the clouds build with temperatures reaching -8. Tuesday: Continued unsettled conditions as the trough passes over the region. More flurries, light southwesterly winds and temps reaching -8. Wednesday: The trough should pass through the region, giving a clearing trend late in the day.

The only recent avalanche report is a size 1.0 machine triggered windslab at ridgecrest from the eastern edge of the region.

Up to 10cm of new snow has fallen in the past couple of days. This overlies surface hoar (as large as 10mm in protected areas), surface facets, the odd old windslab and sun crusts (on steep south through west aspects). The new snow has fallen with limited winds effect. All of these newly buried surfaces are good sliding interfaces; all that's lacking is a large enough load. As more snow arrives and/or the wind picks up (as per the forecast) the avalanche danger will increase. Due to the slow, incremental increase in load (dribs and drabs of new snow and sporadic winds), this increase in danger is difficult to pinpoint and could be very site specific.In some locations there is a rain crust buried between 20-35cm. This crust extends as high as 2200m. Some faceting has been observed around the crust; definitely worth remembering this one.The early November surface hoar remains a layer of concern. Buried 100-150cm it is unlikely to trigger, but consequences of triggering would be a large (up to size 3.0) destructive avalanche.