An extended period of above freezing temperatures at all elevations have created unstable conditions. At 5 AM temperatures were above freezing at 10,500 feet and well above freezing at the mid and lower elevations. Wet loose and wet slab avalanches are possible today on a variety of aspects. Wet slides were observed yesterday in the Hoback River Canyon and in Stewarts Draw at an elevation of 9,000 feet in the Teton Range. The potential for these events to be human triggered or release naturally will increase as the day warms. Steep terrain, known avalanche paths and cornices should be considered to be dangerous today. Very steep, rocky terrain with a shallow snowpack are especially suspect.
Wet loose avalanches are likely today on a variety of aspects in steep terrain at all elevations. These wet slides could be human triggered or release spontaneously and have potential to entrain snow to the ground in areas where the snowpack is isothermal.
Wet slab avalanches are possible in steep terrain and could be human triggered or released naturally in response to warming temperatures. These slabs could fail on buried crusts, isothermal snow and/or areas of buried faceted snow or a combination of these snow types with depths of one to five feet and could step down to the ground.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Mid-level moisture will continue to be directed into the region in a rather stable westerly flow and bring mid and upper level clouds to the area overnight and into the day. Temperatures will drop to around freezing at all elevations overnight and rise into the 40s and 50s during the day. West to west-southwest winds will continue at speeds of 20 to 30 with higher gusts overnight and decrease to 20 with gusts to 30 miles per hour on Monday. The wet snow avalanche hazard will continue to be a concern. Wet loose avalanches are possible on steep slopes on a variety of aspects at all elevations. Wet slab avalanches are a concern in isolated areas. Wet snow avalanche releases are related to air temperature changes and the migration of heat and interaction of free water within the stratigraphy of the snowpack. The timing of wet slide avalanche activity, especially wet slab releases, is consequentially poorly understood and difficult to predict with respect to the exact timing of failure. For these reasons a conservative approach to steep terrain is warranted in these conditions when snow surfaces are soft. The general avalanche hazard is expected to be MODERATE on Monday except at the higher elevations of the Togwotee Pass Area where the hazard may be rated as CONSIDERABLE due to the presence of persistent weak layers deep in the snowpack.
