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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2016–Feb 29th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

New snow may not bond well to the older snow surface, especially in wind-loaded terrain. Choose your lines carefully and avoid exposure to terrain traps.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Monday: 5-10 cm overnight then cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries. The freezing level rises to around 1200-1400 m during the day. Ridge winds are moderate or strong from the W-NW, easing to light during the day. Tuesday: Increasing cloud with flurries developing. The freezing level is around 1400 m and winds ease to light. Wednesday: Cloudy with light snow. The daytime freezing level is steady near 1400 m and winds remain light.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has included isolated natural wind slabs to size 2, loose wet sluffs or pinwheeling on steep sun-exposed slopes, and isolated natural cornice failures. In some cases the cornice falls triggered small slabs below. There was one report of a size 1 skier-triggered wind slab on a NW aspect at treeline on Saturday. This avalanche was just north of Wells.

Snowpack Summary

25-40 cm of new storm snow sits on a crust on solar aspects and lower elevation terrain, and surface hoar on shady and sheltered slopes. A couple sun crusts might exist in the top 50 cm on southerly aspects. New wind slabs will continue to develop with forecast snowfall and moderate northwest-southwest winds in the alpine. The surface hoar and/or crust layer which was buried February 10 is now down 70-100cm but triggering this layer has become unlikely. Large cornices have recently been a concern but should also gain strength will colder temperatures.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs may be susceptible to rider triggering, especially in terrain loaded by strong NW-SW winds and on steep convex rolls.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3