Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 20th, 2015 7:28AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

esharp, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Given the very limited information on hand for this bulletin, I would ride cautiously this weekend and take the time to gather snowpack information as I go. As always, we would love for you to submit any observations from your day to the MIN.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Isolated flurries are expected for Saturday and Sunday before the snowfall intensifies on Monday when up to 20cm of snow is possible. Freezing levels will rise to around 1000m with an inversion developing overnight on Saturday. A cooling trend is expected with the arrival of the storm on Monday. Winds will be mainly light to moderate from the west throughout the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

The storm earlier in the week resulted in a widespread avalanche cycle that produced some large avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50cm of new snow fell in the last week. Below this new snow we’re dealing with a complex snowpack. Previously fickle wind, changing freezing levels and varying snowfall amounts mean that conditions could change dramatically with aspect and elevation. Layers of buried surface hoar or crusts may be found depending on where you dig. It would be wise to test these layers before committing to a slope. At higher elevations in the alpine, facets may be found above the ground, especially on north aspects.Remember that although it's starting to look like winter, it’s still a thin snowpack. Rocks and stumps may be lurking unseen just below the surface. Ride with care!

Problems

Wind Slabs

Westerly wind will have redistributed the low density storm snow from earlier in the week, forming soft windslabs. I suspect that the snow in lee features will be quite reactive. Look for shooting cracks as a sign you are in a wind loaded area.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A variety of buried persistent weak layers have been reported from across the region including surface hoar and crusts. Although it is starting to look like winter at upper elevations we're still dealing with a highly variable early snowpack.

Now is a good time to dig a snow profile (or two) and figure out how the snowpack changes with aspect and elevation.>Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are lurking on or just under the surface>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Nov 21st, 2015 2:00PM