Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 1st, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada kdevine, Avalanche Canada

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Expect to see reactive storm slab conditions, especially in wind loaded areas. Choose conservative terrain and avoid overhead hazard.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Flurries, 10-15 / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -6 / freezing level 1000-1500 m and dropping back down to valley bottom overnight in most areas 

TUESDAY - Flurries, 5 cm / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -8

WEDNESDAY - Mainly sunny / light northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -9 

THURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6

Avalanche Summary

Reactive storm slabs are expected to be widespread on Tuesday, and human triggered avalanches are likely, especially in wind loaded areas.

At the time of publishing, there were a few reports of size 1-2 natural and explosives triggered avalanches near Pemberton on Monday.

There were several reports of size 1-1.5 natural and human triggered avalanches in the region on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

The region has seen 30-60 cm of new snow over the past few days, with another 5 cm expected during the day on Tuesday. 

This 30-60 cm of fresh snow sits on a recently buried persistent weak layer that consists of facets at upper elevations, surface hoar in some sheltered areas, a melt-freeze crust below 1600 m, and a sun crust on south-facing slopes.

In the south, the underlying snowpack is well consolidated. In the north, a melt-freeze crust from early December may be found 100 to 200 cm deep. Recent reports suggest that this layer is gaining strength and it has been unreactive in recent weeks.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will likely continue to be reactive on Tuesday, especially in wind loaded areas. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

30-60 cm sits on a buried weak layer that consists of facets, surface hoar, or a crust, depending on location. Avalanches on this layer may propagate widely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Feb 2nd, 2021 4:00PM