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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2019–Jan 30th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Use caution in crossloaded features. A  windslab might step down to deeper weaknesses. 

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Treeline high temperature of -5C, with light NW winds. Thursday-Friday: Temperatures stay steady around -5, with cloudy skies and flurries. Winds will be light to moderate from the SW A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

5-10cm of snowfall on Sunday with SW - NW winds created wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain. Surfaces became moist on solar slopes at treeline Monday. A layer of weak surface hoar is now buried 10-15cm deep. Below, a strong mid-pack sits over depth-hoar in the lower third of the snowpack (giving sudden results in snowpack testing Saturday).

Avalanche Summary

A natural Size 3 Deep Persistent slab was observed Monday on a steep (35+ degrees) Alpine South-West facing slope. Triggered by a smaller windslab, it stepped down to depth hoar and the ground. Several windslabs to Size 2 were also observed (Alpine S and E aspects). Help forecast - share observations HERE, on the Mountain Information Network!

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow on Sunday arrived with Strong winds (ranging from SW to N) creating windslabs over a variety of surfaces, including suncrust, surface hoar, and wind pressed areas. While natural activity has tapered, human triggering remains possible.
Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow. Avoid wind loaded terrain.Use caution in lee and cross-loaded areas. Recent wind loading has created new wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A natural avalanche Monday on this layer shows that only minor changes may wake this generally dormant dragon. Triggering is most likely in thin areas, with variable snowpack depth. Use terrain choice and safe practices to minimize consequences.
Ride slopes one at a time and spot for your partners from safe locations.Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5