Avalanche Forecast

Moderate

No new avalanches have been reported, however visibility into much of the Island's avalanche terrain is very limited. It is expected that a large natural avalanche cycle will be ongoing through Wednesday night. Human-triggering potential will likely persist as natural avalanches taper off.

By Thursday morning, 40 - 100 cm of new snow should have accumulated across the Island, with the greatest accumulations on the west coast. Fluctuating freezing levels may form distinct layering and mid-storm failure planes as new snow accumulates.

The new snow is falling on 20 - 30 cm of older, settled snow sitting on the early December crust, or on a combination of wet grains or crust at lower elevations. Below this, the remainder of the snowpack is thoroughly settled and bonded as a result of recent heavy rain.

Snowpack depths at treeline in advance of the storm varied from about 100 -150 cm on the north and south island, closer to 200 to 250 cm on the central island.

Wednesday night

Cloudy with 10-60 mm of mixed precipitation with the greatest values on the west island. 50 to 70 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing level reaching 1500 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with wet flurries bringing 5 to 15 cm of new snow after uncertain overnight accumulations from mixed precipitation. 50 to 70 km/h southeast ridgetop wind shifting southwest. Freezing level 1200 m.

Friday

Mainly cloudy with flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. 20 to 30 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1300 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with continuing wet flurries bringing 5 to 30 cm of new snow. 50 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

• Be aware of the potential for human triggerable storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.
• Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.