Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 16th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

a.l. horton, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Freezing levels to 4000m, warm nights and sunny skies will provide prime conditions for an isothermal snowpack and potential for large avalanches. Patience will be required for springtime ski objectives. Avoid avalanche terrain until conditions cool.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Unusually warm temperatures for this time of year and freezing levels up to 4000m will continue for several days into the week. Don't expect much overnight recovery in the snowpack. The sun will dominate for the foreseeable future.

Snowpack Summary

Temperatures will start warming Sunday and freezing levels are expected to climb to 4000m. Several hot days with little to no overnight recovery are expected. This will create isothermal conditions on all but high elevation N aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Expecting a significant avalanche cycle with loose snow avalanches, cornices being triggered and potential for the deep persistent slab layers on N aspects to run big and far.

Confidence

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

We have seen all aspects but north run big and far. With even warmer temperatures forecast, we can expect the high elevation N aspects to respond.

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

3 - 4

Loose Wet

Warm overnight temperatures and freezing levels up to 4000m will create a widespread avalanche cycle until temperatures cool.

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Extended periods of time with above 0 temperatures will weaken cornices. Be aware that even if you are in the shade on a N aspect the tops of the cornices will still be getting sun affected above you.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 17th, 2016 4:00PM