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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 2nd, 2012–Dec 3rd, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Monday: Light precipitation overnight should bring 4-6 mm to most of the region, areas to the west may see closer to 10 mm. Very strong winds are forecast overnight, and strong winds are expected from the SW on Monday.Tuesday: The next Pacific system is expected to bring a lot of moisture to the south and west of the region. The north and east parts of the region may only see 5-10 mm. Strong winds and high freezing levels will affect the areas that see the most moisture.Wednesday: Precipitation amounts should be light in the wake of the storm and freezing levels should drop down to near the valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations.

Snowpack Summary

A report from near Harvey Pass tells us that there is about 25 cms of storm snow that is "damp" at treeline and the ski penetration is only about 20 cms. The November crust was found to be buried down about 60 cms and was associated with a layer of facets either directly above or below. Light winds were not transporting much snow in this area. Alpine elevations may be quite different, as most of the recent precipitation has fallen as snow. We are hoping that the storm snow will bond well as temperatures cool, this may still take a day or two.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs have developed in the alpine that are 20-30 cms deep. Some pockets of wind slab may develop at higher elevations near ridge tops. The new snow has been reported as moist at treeline.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

We have not heard of any new releases on this early season rain crust. The new storm snow may create enough of a load to activate this layer. Look for signs of deep releases on steep terrain in the alpine during the storm.
Be aware of thin areas that may propagate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 4