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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2017–Jan 4th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Be cautious near shallow rocky areas, where a small slab could trigger buried weak layers resulting in large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

The arctic outbreak continues with cold temperatures and no snow until Sunday at the earliest. WEDNESDAY: Dry and sunny and COLD. Winds light-moderate north/northeasterly 20-35 km/h. Temperatures between -16 and -28 Celcius!THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Wind light southwest. Temperatures between -13 and -24 Celcius. No precipitation. FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Wind becoming southwesterly 5-15 km/h. Temperatures between -12 and -20 Celcius. No precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity seems to have tapered off with one natural wind slab (Size 1.5) observed on New Year's day on a NE aspect in the alpine near Fernie.

Snowpack Summary

The snow from last week is showing signs of consolidating into soft slabs and sits on a variety of wind-affected surfaces at treeline and in the alpine.  That said, the main concern is windslabs (and some cornices) forming in the alpine due to the recent arctic outbreak winds. Deeper in the snowpack the mid-December persistent layer (facet interface) has been more prominent and reactive in the Corbin zone than closer to Fernie: Watch out for thinner snow packs and areas of crossloading in isolated areas (think shallow rocky areas) where an avalanche could step down to trigger deeper layers.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Variable northerly winds may redistribute the new snow into reactive wind slabs in exposed lee terrain. In shallow snowpack areas, these slabs could pull out to deeper layers below, increasing the size of an avalanche.
Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow, there is the potential to trigger large, dangerous avalanches. Dig down and test for weak layers before committing to any steep slope.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Danger spots are where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow below.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3