Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

The pattern turns cooler, with some sunny skies under the ridge for the next two days. The next low pressure system will begin to effect the region on Tuesday, bringing cloud cover and new snow.Monday: The ridge will move over all regions and dominate the weather pattern. Lingering cloud until mid-day with sunny skies in the afternoon. Ridgetop winds light from the South. Alpine temperatures near -4 and freezing levels around 1300 m in the afternoon. Tuesday: The low will bring a milder southerly flow over the region and push a weak and poorly timed upper wave across the Kootenay, Columbias and South Rockies. Alpine temperatures -3 and freezing levels 1100 m. Ridgetop winds light from the SW. Wednesday: Moderate snow amounts with ridgetop winds light from the East. Alpine temperatures near -5 and freezing levels 1500 m falling to valley bottom overnight.

Numerous natural slab avalanches were reported on Saturday. These occurred mainly on N-E aspects, above 2200 m and ranging from size 1.5-2.5, failing within the recent storm snow, and suspect of failing on older surface hoar layers buried down 50-60 cm. Explosive control initiated numerous size 1.5-2.5 slab avalanches on SE-SW aspects above 1600m. No new observations reported on Sunday.

In much of the region, up to 80 cm recent snow overlies weak interfaces comprising of surface hoar and sun crusts that developed mid-February. The storm slab above these interfaces has the potential for wide propagations and surprisingly large avalanches, especially where winds have shifted the snow into slabs in the lee of terrain breaks. A thin freezing rain/rime crust formed last Friday, which is now buried by about 20-40cm snow. I'm uncertain of its distribution and reactivity, but am hesitant to disregard it until with get through this stormy period.In the Rossland Range, surface hoar which was buried mid-week is 20-35 cm down and exhibits easy, sudden results in snowpack tests. As more snow builds over this layer, it could become touchy.The lower snowpack is generally well settled, and average treeline snow depths sit near 250 cm.