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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 20th, 2012–Mar 21st, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Convective snow showers. Moderate south-westerly winds, decreasing through the day. Freezing level around 700m.Thursday: Light snow. Light, south-easterly winds. Freezing level around 500m. Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Freezing level remaining near 500m.

Avalanche Summary

Last week was very active with natural avalanche activity up to size 3.5 and several rider involvements and close calls. Some avalanches failed on the mid-February persistent weakness. On Monday, a skier triggered a buried wind slab on a convex roll 30-40cm deep on a north-east aspect. Some natural activity was also observed on steep solar aspects. On Sunday, a skier triggered a size 1.5 from a north-east aspect, in steep rocky terrain. Avalanches were also triggered naturally and by explosives in steep, rocky terrain to size 2. A size 3 slab was observed on a north-west aspect in the Musical Bumps area, near Whistler, suspected to have failed on Sunday. The trigger is unknown.

Snowpack Summary

Snow and wind created fresh wind slabs and storm slabs on Tuesday. Heavy snow which fell last week is slowly settling, but variable storm snow weaknesses and buried crusts mean a deep storm slab release is still possible. Cornices are large and threaten slopes below. A persistent weakness, formed in mid-February, continues to produce hard, sudden planar results in snowpack tests. The likelihood of triggering this layer has gone down, but very large avalanches remain possible, which could be triggered by a shallower avalanche or cornice fall. The average snowpack depth at treeline is 350cm.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Variable new and old storm slabs will be easiest to trigger on steep or convex terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs lurk below ridges, behind terrain features and in gullies. They may be buried by new snow, making them hard to spot. Large cornices have formed, and threaten slopes below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Deep Persistent Slabs

Persistent weaknesses still have the potential to create very large, destructive avalanches if triggered. Possible triggering mechanisms include a person/sled on a thin snowpack spot, cornice fall, or step-down avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 4 - 8