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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2012–Jan 23rd, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Flurries on Sunday evening and Monday morning should become snow by Monday evening. Gusty southerly winds are expected to become moderate southwest at ridgetops by Tuesday morning. During the day Tuesday the wind is forecast to build to strong from the southwest, freezing levels should rise to about 1000 metres and new snow should accumulate up to 20 cm. Unsettled weather bringing flurries and periods of snow are expected for Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Suspect due to limited visibility and travel on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

The new storm has developed a thick blanket of dry light snow above the cold dry surface. If this new storm warms up a bit, expect a storm slab to consolidate above this cold relatively weak layer. Watch for new windslabs developing due to forecast strong southwest winds. Some surface facetting during the recent cold spell. Strong temperature gradient in the top 30 cm. Stiff windslabs have developed in the alpine and at treeline. Some areas reporting a crust that is now buried by about 50 cm of cold dry light snow. Strong well settled mid-pack. Cornice structures are weak and have been growing fast, and falling off!

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The snow pack may develop a stiffer layer above lighter drier snow as the temperature increases during the storm. If this slab develops, we expect that it will be easily triggered and may run fast and far.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Wind Slabs

The new snow is expected to be transported into new windslabs. The snow pack may develop a stiffer layer above lighter drier snow as the temperature increases during the storm.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6