Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 7th, 2014 8:06AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

More storm = more avalanche danger! There are a few other problems that we are uncertain about. Check out the new blog post here.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Saturday: Moderate westerly winds overnight and light to moderate precipitation. Heavy precipitation and strong southwest winds during the day. Freezing level rising to about 1800 metres.Sunday: Continued strong southwest winds and moderate to heavy precipitation. Freezing level rising to 2000 metres.Monday: Freezing level dropping overnight to about 1000 metres. Winds becoming light northwesterly as the precipitation ends in the morning.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Expect natural avalanche activity over the weekend as the storm slab develops.

Snowpack Summary

In general, about 20-40cm of storm snow overlies small surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas, a sun crust on solar aspects and wind slabs in exposed terrain. The recent snowfall exists as pockets of wind slab in exposed terrain. Further snowfall, wind and warming will add to the reactivity and destructive potential of this developing storm slab. There is ongoing concern for a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies up to a metre below the surface, and includes weak surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered-off at this interface, destructive avalanches are still a concern with recent reports of rider-triggering in alpine terrain. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast new snow and wind is expected to add an additional load to the recent storm slab that may not be well bonded to the old surfaces.

Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A deep, dense slab overlies a variety of weak layers and may still be reactive in some areas. Triggering this weakness would have nasty consequences, so be patient and don't be tempted into large, unsupported terrain.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Mar 8th, 2014 2:00PM