Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 31st, 2016 9:33AM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Cornices, Loose Wet and Persistent Slabs.

jfloyer, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Special Public Avalanche Warning for this region. Continued very warm temperatures with little overnight freeze coupled with strong solar radiation will increase the avalanche danger to HIGH in the alpine during the hottest part of the day.

Summary

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

A high pressure ridge continues to bring warm, sunny weather to this region. Freezing levels are expected to remain as high as 3000 m through Friday. On Saturday, a weak low pressure system moves through, bringing cloud cover and the chance of some light snowfalls. Winds are expected to be moderate from the southwest and we should see a lowering of the freezing level to around 2400 m. On Sunday, expect a mix of sun and cloud and freezing levels dropping to around 2000m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, loose wet avalanches were reported up to size 2. On Tuesday numerous natural cornice releases resulted in avalanches up to size 3.0 from various aspects in the alpine. On Monday we had reports of several natural cornice falls up to size 2.0 from various aspects in the alpine. There were also several loose moist or wet avalanches up to size 2.0 on solar exposed aspects in steep terrain in the late afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

New surface crusts have developed at all elevations on solar aspects and on all but high alpine elevations on shaded aspects. Thin surface crusts may break down early with continued warm temperatures. Approximately 30-50 cm of settled storm snow sits on a melt-freeze crust buried on Mar. 20. The late February persistent weak layer continues to be a concern for wide propagations in isolated terrain, however it may take a large trigger like a cornice fall to initiate an avalanche. Watch for recent storm snow releasing as loose wet avalanches on steep solar aspects with strong solar radiation and daytime warming this week.

Problems

Cornices

Continued high freezing levels and very warm daytime temperatures are very likely to result in natural cornice falls. Large cornice falls may trigger buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Wet

Forecast high freezing levels and very warm daytime temperatures may break down surface crusts early and result in loose wet avalanches from steep solar aspects. Wet slab avalanches are possible if loose snow propagates on a buried crust.

Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Continued warm and sunny weather may add enough heat to the snowpack to “wake-up” persistent weak layers buried in the snowpack. Rapid warming of the winter snowpack can result in deeply buried weak layers propagating very large avalanches.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Apr 1st, 2016 2:00PM