Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry and cool, with sunny periods. Winds are generally light from the NW. The freezing level is at valley floor by night and rising to around 1200 m by day. The next storm system may arrive late on Wednesday, but weather models are not in agreement about this.

Several size 1.5-2.5 avalanches were triggered naturally over the last few days in response to storm loading, wind and warm temperatures. A number of cornice collapses have been reported over the last few days. Now that temperatures have cooled, avalanche activity is likely to ease, although direct sun may spark a new avalanche cycle on steep slopes.

Now that the weather has finally cooled after ten days of very warm temperatures and bursts of rain, surface crusts have formed up to around 1800 m. Underneath newly formed crusts, you may find moist snow for a few days yet. At alpine elevations, recently formed wind slabs or storm slabs may be found. Cornices are large and weak. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer, buried around a metre deep, remains a key concern, as it could still be human-triggered and could produce a destructive avalanche. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 80-120cm and is unlikely to be triggered, apart from in a thin or rocky snowpack area. The mid-December weak layer is down over 120cm, but has been generally unreactive lately. Basal weaknesses remain in the back of operators' minds.