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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2016–Jan 19th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Highly sensitive storm slabs are everywhere. Conservative terrain selection is essential for safe travel.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with another 5-10cm of snow, moderate southerly winds and freezing levels around 1100m. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud but generally dry, light winds and freezing around 1000m. Thursday: As much as 20-30cm expected. Strong southerly winds and freezing levels around 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Sunday include numerous Size 1-2 storm slab avalanches direct and remotely triggered by skiers on slopes as low-angled as 20 degrees, as well as widespread whumpfing in flatter terrain as low as 1300m.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 50cm of accumulating storm snow is bonding poorly to a widespread layer of surface hoar, facets, and/or sun crust. 10-20 cm below this is a second buried weak layer of surface hoar and/or a crust. Recent snowpack tests produced clean and sudden fractures on both these weaknesses with only moderate force. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted. At lower treeline elevations recent rains have saturated the upper snowpack. At higher elevations moderate to strong southwest winds have recently loaded lee features at treeline and in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are primed for human triggering on all aspects and at all elevations. Remote triggering and widespread propagation makes hazard particularly tricky to manage.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>A layer of buried surface hoar is expected to increase the size and reactivity of developing storm slabs. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4