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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 19th, 2012–Dec 20th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Strong winds at ridge top elevations in the Icefields area are increasing the slab avalanche danger.

Weather Forecast

Strong Southwesterly winds at elevation with the possibility of 10cm of new snow in the Icefields area. Temperatures will remain cool through to the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs in the alpine are the primary avalanche concern. These are more likely to be encountered in the Columbia Icefields area where the strongest winds have been observed. In the Marmot Pass area on December 18th, surface slabs  failed with a moderate shear near treeline elevations. The mid snowpack remains supportive for the time being.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed in the past 24 hours.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate test results at treeline in the Portal creek area occurred on a Southeast facing 35 degree slope below a 25cm wind slab. Strong SW winds in the Icefields area at upper elevations are likely adding to this condition.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Sheltered slopes at lower elevations will offer the best skiing today.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

A supportive mid-pack is adding strength to the snowpack above this weakness. Shallow areas should be considered suspect.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3