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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 21st, 2018–Feb 22nd, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Its chilly out there! We are slowly gaining confidence with the weak layers in the snowpack, but it will take time before its "good to go".

Weather Forecast

An arctic ridge over the area brings mostly clear, dry and cold conditions through the end of the week. There is a chance of light flurries along the divide but little accumulation is expected. Winds are forecasted to be light Thursday increasing Friday. A warming trend arrives towards the the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

The upper pack consists of storm snow from earlier in the month that is bonding and settling. This overlies the mid-pack where there are three weak layers that are gaining strength. These layers continue to produce moderate, sudden planar test results on surface hoar in deep tap tests, and hard to no results with standard compression tests.

Avalanche Summary

One size 3 avalanche was observed in good light that occurred within the last 48 hours on a north facing alpine feature on Pilot Mountain. It looked to initiate on the persistent layers but stepped to ground in many locations. No other avalanches have been observed or reported in the last 48 hours.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A strong upper snowpack overlies three weak layers in the mid snowpack: Jan 16, Jan 6, and Dec 15. All are a mix of sun crust, surface hoar and facets depending on location, and we are slowly gaining confidence with these layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3